Tatton Weekly: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be fearful or optimistic?; Central banks’ monetary policy: Have they got it all wrong?; Emerging Markets on the up?

All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be fearful or optimistic?

While the general public struggled with lack of political progress around the world, most western stock markets reached new highs. Fitting that this happened as we passed the 10th anniversary of the pre-GFC (global financial crisis) stock market highs.

Central banks’ monetary policy: Have they got it all wrong?

We observed numerous press articles over the past few weeks questioning central banks’ current policy stance and asking whether central bankers are facing a crisis of confidence. In short, the theme appears to be: Central bankers’ continuing adherence to economic models that may have worked in the past may be misplaced in the current environment. Specifically, central bankers are being challenged over whether they have failed to properly understand today’s dynamic of inflation. Or, whether they may be focussing too narrowly on general price inflation, when asset price inflation, in the current environment, may pose the same or perhaps an even higher risk to ongoing economic stability and prosperity.

Emerging Markets on the up?

On Monday, the US decided to suspend the issuing of non-immigrant visas to Turkish citizens. It followed the Turkish government’s arrest of Metin Topuz, a Turkish employee at the US consulate in Istanbul, last week. Pro-government newspapers allege that Topuz had ties to Fetullah Gulen, the Turkish cleric who President Erdogan blames for last year’s failed coup attempt. The incidents mark a new low in US-Turkey relations, which have been turning bitter for some time now.

 

Please click here for the full Tatton commentary.